Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
